Filing Watch: Southwest — July 2026 (3-Page Tabloid)
Insurance Xdate
FILING WATCH
Southwest Edition · July 2026
Page 1 — Workers Comp & Commercial Auto
Monthly Rate Briefing

Commercial auto is re-pricing across the Southwest — and Progressive just put a new scoring model on 219,000 Texas fleets.

This month's screen — approved rate increases touching 1,000+ policyholders at severity 4–5, in workers comp and commercial auto — came back all auto and almost all California, with one Texas filing towering over everything by sheer reach. Workers comp is quiet: the only qualifying WC increase was a modest Travelers +3% in California. Here's where the auto action actually is.

Industries in this issue's filings

Farms & Agriculture
Nationwide Agri +13.5%, Mercury
Construction & Trades
Mercury CA auto
Auto Dealers & Work Trucks
Mercury CA auto

Lead Filing

TXCommercial AutoSeverity 4/5

Progressive's 6% Texas auto increase lands on 219,301 policyholders — and installs Scoring Model v5.0 under a 15.5% indication

Approved July 7. On the surface it's the softest headline on this page — an average 6.0% — but it rides the largest book in the region by a wide margin: 219,301 Texas commercial-auto policyholders and roughly $1.06 billion in premium. A small percentage on a book that size is the reach story of the month. And the average understates the move: Progressive simultaneously rolls out Scoring Model v5.0, re-sorting every account onto a new index, while its own actuarial indication was 15.5% — more than double the filed rate. When a carrier takes barely a third of its indicated need on a book this large, the gap doesn't close; it reloads for the next filing. Any Texas fleet renewing with Progressive should expect its individual number to diverge from the 6% average depending on where the new model lands it.

+6.0%
Average
15.5%
Indicated
219,301
Policyholders
$1.06B
Premium
$4,822
Avg prem/policy

Also Approved This Cycle

CACommercial AutoSev 4

Mercury raises California commercial auto 14.9% — liability up 17%, plus a new financial-scoring debit

Mercury's average 14.9% is weighted toward a 17% liability hike, and it adds a financial-performance IRPM factor that can swing an account up to 10% either way based on its financials. New utility- and service-bed body-type codes pull in more work trucks. Farms, contractors, auto dealers and waste haulers are the exposed classes. Effective December 1 — line up alternatives now.

28,357 policyholders · $242.5M premium · effective Dec 1, 2026 · ~$8,551/policy
CACommercial AutoSev 4

Nationwide Agribusiness takes 13.5% on California farm auto — concentrated in liability and heavy trucks

The increase is aimed at liability and heavy trucks, with Truck/Tractor/Trailer class factors and combined-single-limit increased-limit factors both pulled toward ISO. Farm and ranch operations running their own fleets are squarely in scope. Effective November 1.

3,844 policyholders · $61.3M premium · effective Nov 1, 2026 · ~$15,947/policy
CACommercial AutoSev 4

Liberty Mutual wins 14% on California commercial auto — on top of 33.6% last year

A roughly 20% liability hike drives the 14.0% average, and it compounds on a 33.6% increase the prior year — two-year renewals are now running well over 50% above 2024. Effective April 6, 2027; model the compounding before renewal, not at it.

3,076 policyholders · $50.1M premium · effective Apr 6, 2027 · ~$16,292/policy

Where's workers comp — and what about Texas?

Workers comp is genuinely quiet across the Southwest this cycle: the only qualifying WC rate increase was Travelers' +3.0% in California, adopting the new WCIRB pure-premium rates with steeper Los Angeles territory tiers — modest, and the region's sole comp filing to clear the bar. On the auto side, Utica National's group-wide +13.1% Texas commercial-auto increase (1,287 policyholders, catching up to ISO legacy loss costs, with agricultural and professional-services programs hit hardest) also qualified but sits just behind the featured three. The scoring and migration action — where the pricing really moved — is on Page 3.

Northeast
Southeast
Midwest / NW
SouthwestThis week
Insurance Xdate
FILING WATCH
Southwest Edition · July 2026
Page 2 — The Wider Market: All Other Lines
Beyond WC & Auto

Excess and specialty liability is where the Southwest is really firming — led by a 33.2% California umbrella jump.

Same screen, every other commercial line: umbrella, employment-practices, abuse-and-molestation and farm carriers are all pushing rate, and several are taking far less than their own filings say they need. Farmers' umbrella book absorbed a 160% loss year; an ISO advisory just reset the employment-practices floor for the whole market. These books aren't done.

Industries in this issue's filings

Habitational & Real Estate
Farmers umbrella caps building limits
Youth, Care & Religious Orgs
Philadelphia abuse & molestation +23.9%
Employers — All Classes
ISO EPLI advisory +25%
Farms & Ranches
Liberty Mutual farmowners +11%

Lead Filing

CACommercial UmbrellaSeverity 5/5

Farmers' Truck Insurance Exchange takes 33.2% on California commercial umbrella after a 160% loss year

Approved July 1, effective October 1. Farmers' Truck Insurance Exchange unit — a commercial-umbrella and excess book, not a trucking program — raises rates an average 33.2% following a 160% loss ratio in 2024. It also tightens the front end: habitational and real-estate building limits are capped for new business, and timeshare and short-term-rental risks are made ineligible outright. 13,624 policyholders and $22.9M in premium are affected. Contractors, wholesalers, retailers, real-estate and hospitality accounts carrying excess limits here should expect both the rate and the eligibility screen to bite — and start shopping their excess towers early.

+33.2%
Average
160%
2024 loss ratio
13,624
Policyholders
$22.9M
Premium
$1,678
Avg prem/policy

Three Filings Worth a Closer Look

CAEmployment PracticesISO Advisory

ISO Advisory — Market-Wide Signal: EPLI loss costs reset +25% in California

This is an ISO advisory loss-cost filing, not one carrier's rate — so it resets the floor for every carrier that builds on ISO EPLI loss costs, a roster that runs from Chubb and Travelers to AIG, Hartford, Liberty Mutual and W.R. Berkley. ISO won 25.0% against a 71.3% indication, so the signal is that far more rate is coming as adopters file up to it. Any employer renewing employment-practices coverage in California should treat this as the leading edge of a broad market move. Effective immediately.

count not reported · ISO advisory loss costs · effective Jul 2, 2026
TXAbuse & MolestationSev 4

Philadelphia Indemnity raises Texas abuse-and-molestation rates 23.9% — a second straight double-digit year

Citing loss ratios above 100%, Philadelphia Indemnity (Tokio Marine) takes 23.9% on Texas sexual-abuse-and-molestation coverage, following a 31.9% increase a year earlier — compounding to roughly 63% over two years. Schools, youth programs, social-services agencies, camps and religious organizations are the exposed classes and have the fewest alternative markets. Effective April 1, 2027.

2,323 policyholders · $5.3M premium · effective Apr 1, 2027 · ~$2,271/policy
CAFarm & RanchSev 4

Liberty Mutual takes 11% on California farmowners — with a 37% liability hike and tighter animal terms

The 11.0% average is weighted toward a 37% liability increase, and the coverage terms tighten alongside it: mandatory 80% coinsurance and protective-safeguard requirements for animal suffocation, plus restricted care/custody/control coverage. California farm and ranch operations feel both the rate and the new conditions. Effective September 28.

5,024 policyholders · $16.1M premium · effective Sep 28, 2026 · ~$3,204/policy

The Rest of the Qualifying List

StateCarrierLine / Sub-typeSeverityPolicyholdersEffective
TXThe Hanover Insurance GroupOther Liability — General Liability4 / 51,961Oct 1, 2026
TXSpinnaker (Harborway)Other Liability — Combinations4 / 55,189Aug 1, 2026
TXUnited Fire GroupCMP — Businessowners3 / 53,316Sep 15, 2026
TXNext Insurance (Munich Re)CMP — Commercial Package3 / 59,708Dec 11, 2026

Also on the radar

The Hanover's Texas GL filing above (+8.7%, 1,961 policyholders) also restructured its abuse-hazard classes and pulled its educational-institution deviations — residential-care facilities take the steepest hit. And a wave of Colorado commercial filings — package, general liability and businessowners — cleared at a 0% headline this month while masking 30%+ underlying increases. That's the Liberty Mutual / State Auto migration, and it's the lead story on Page 3.

Insurance Xdate
FILING WATCH
Southwest Edition · July 2026
Page 3 — Filing Effects: Guidelines, Coverage & Scoring
Beyond the Rate Number

The Southwest's biggest structural move hides behind a 0%: Liberty Mutual is re-rating the entire State Auto book in Colorado.

Same region, the filings whose headline rate hides the action: new scoring algorithms, underwriting-guideline changes and coverage contraction approved in July. The throughline is a migration — Liberty Mutual absorbing its acquired State Auto book at a 0% headline that conceals 30%-plus underlying dislocation — alongside a genuine wave of third-party driver and property scoring across Texas and Utah.

Industries in this page's filings

Auto Dealers & Fleets
Federated CarFax/LexisNexis tiering
Landlords & Rentals
Allstate landlord package +10.8%
Roofing & Contractors
Harborway roofing exclusions
Municipal & Firefighters
Trean exits OK firefighter comp

Lead Filing · Scoring & Migration

COCommercial Lines MigrationSeverity 5/5

Liberty Mutual migrates the entire Colorado State Auto book at 0% — while 30%+ of the real increase hides under a 10%-a-year cap

Approved July 31. In a coordinated set of filings, Liberty Mutual is moving its acquired State Auto policies in Colorado — commercial auto, commercial package, general liability and businessowners alike — onto Liberty Mutual rates, rules and forms. Every filing carries a 0% headline. The reality underneath: most migrating insureds face indicated increases above 30%, and on the general-liability book specifically, 54% of policyholders sit above a 30% indicated need. A three-year transition plan caps the move at plus-or-minus 10% per year, so the 0% is a schedule, not a reprieve — the increase is real and simply spread across renewals. Any Colorado account still on legacy State Auto paper should assume it is now on a multi-year escalator and price accordingly.

0%
Headline
30%+
Underlying
10%/yr
Transition cap
CO
All commercial lines

New Scoring Models — The Trend Is Real

TXCommercial AutoSev 3

Texas commercial auto goes to driver scores: Federated adds CarFax and LexisNexis tiering

Federated Mutual's Texas commercial-auto filing is only +1.9% overall, but it withdraws the old accident-experience-rating plan and replaces it with a tier factor built on LexisNexis driver scores and CarFax vehicle history — with steep auto-dealer and UM/UIM hikes underneath. It doesn't stand alone: BITCO layered on a proprietary 45-tier driver model (a -3.2% headline against a 40.7% indication), and Travelers aligned its new Texas program's credit bands to Progressive. Read alongside Progressive's v5.0 on Page 1, third-party scoring is now pricing Texas fleets.

2,731 policyholders · $83.2M premium · approved Jul 10, 2026 · ~$30,448/policy
UTLandlord PackageSev 3

Allstate raises Utah landlord packages 10.8% on updated wildfire scoring

Allstate's Utah landlord package takes 10.8%, driven by updated wildfire modeling that scores each location's exposure — and it follows a 22.3% increase in 2023, compounding to roughly 35% over the period. Owners of rental and habitational property in wildfire-scored territories carry the increase whether or not they've had a claim. Effective July 13 — already in market.

6,194 policyholders · $7.0M premium · approved Jul 8, 2026 · ~$1,123/policy
UTBOPSev 3

Federated's Utah BOP is 0% overall — and rebuilt around predictive property and liability tiers

Filed revenue-neutral at 0%, Federated Mutual's Utah businessowners revision introduces property and liability tier-factor plans powered by the ISO Risk Analyzer, Betterview aerial roof data and credit indicators. The average is meaningless: individual premiums swing sharply depending on how the model scores the roof, the classes and the owner's credit. The scoring is the change.

213 policyholders · $1.2M premium · approved Jul 14, 2026 · ~$5,699/policy

Underwriting Guideline Changes

CABOPSev 4

Oregon Mutual confirms it has stopped writing new California business

A 0% California BOP rule filing carries its real news in the guidelines: Oregon Mutual has stopped writing new business in the state to manage surplus. Existing insureds keep their coverage — the 3% automatic building-limit increase is even extended through 2029 — but there's no new-business market here, so any California account that needs to move off another carrier has one fewer door. On a $69.2M book, agents should know the appetite is closed. Effective September 1.

2,642 policyholders · $69.2M premium · approved Jul 30, 2026 · ~$26,203/policy
COCommercial AutoSev 3

The Hartford takes 10% on Colorado commercial auto — against a 25.2% indication

The Hartford's Nutmeg unit lands 10.0% on Colorado commercial auto, weighted toward liability and uninsured-motorist coverage, against a 25.2% indicated need — barely 40% of what it says the book requires, so more is loading. It also adds vehicle-wrap limit increases, a single physical-damage deductible option and a premium-audit endorsement. Effective August 1.

1,108 policyholders · $8.9M premium · approved Jul 9, 2026 · ~$8,064/policy

Coverage Contraction & Market Exits

NVGeneral LiabilitySev 4

Harborway bolts total roofing and open-roof exclusions onto its Nevada GL

Rather than a stated book-wide rate, Spinnaker's Harborway program in Nevada raised its loss-cost multiplier and added a stack of exclusions: total roofing-operations, open-roof and spontaneous-combustion exclusions, plus a batch clause and new fees. Roofers and contractors are the target — several classes lose coverage they had, not just pay more for it. Effective November 1.

count not reported · loss-cost multiplier + exclusions · approved Jul 14, 2026
CACommercial UmbrellaSev 4

Liberty Mutual's -0.2% California umbrella hides a full rating rebuild

The headline is essentially flat — -0.2% — but the filing replaces auto base rates with a 35.09% base excess factor, swaps minimum premiums for a $425 expense constant, and adds fleet-size and vehicle-type factors, all against a 24.2% indication. The average conceals large individual swings; auto-heavy and larger-fleet umbrella accounts can move well beyond the headline in either direction. Effective October 26.

5,588 policyholders · $22.4M premium · approved Jul 8, 2026 · ~$4,007/policy
OKWorkers CompSev 5

Trean exits the Oklahoma firefighter comp class entirely

Trean's 7710 and Benchmark companies are withdrawing from the Oklahoma firefighter and fire-department workers-comp class and non-renewing every existing policy by January 2027. The book is tiny, but volunteer and municipal fire departments in a niche, hard-to-place class are losing a market and need a replacement lined up well before non-renewal hits. Effective July 14.

2 policies non-renewed · firefighter class exit · approved Jul 14, 2026

Also on the radar

Two genuine bright spots cut against the grain: Chubb lowered its Colorado workers-comp large-risk alternative-rating threshold from $500,000 to $100,000 (4,160 policyholders), opening negotiated rating to mid-market accounts, and AAIS filed a -7.1% Oklahoma general-liability decrease while adding classes for renewable energy, biofuels and BYOB restaurants. Meanwhile Next Insurance's Texas package (9,708 policyholders, on Page 2) introduced industry 'Market Group Factors' that surcharge day-care and auto-service classes — a quieter scoring move riding under a 4.8% headline.