Filing Watch: Southwest — January 2026
Insurance Xdate
FILING WATCH
Southwest Edition · January 2026
Page 1 — Workers Comp & Commercial Auto
Monthly Rate Briefing

Commercial auto is the story in the Southwest — and Texas truckers are taking the biggest hit.

Six approved increases cleared our screen this cycle: high-impact, rate-increase filings touching 1,000+ policyholders each, approved in January 2026 across workers comp and commercial auto. Five of the six are commercial auto, and the magnitudes are eye-watering — one Texas book averages 41%. Here's what your clients are about to feel.

Industries in this issue's filings

Trucking & Transportation
in 4 of 6 filings
Construction & Trades
in 3 of 6 filings
Couriers & Last-Mile
in 2 of 6 filings
For-Hire Livery
in 1 of 6 filings

Lead Filing

TXCommercial AutoSeverity 5/5

FCCI's 41.4% average hides an 88% ceiling for Austin and San Antonio truckers

Approved January 20, effective August 1. FCCI Group's Texas commercial auto book — 1,147 policyholders, $63.3M in premium across FCCI, National Trust and Monroe Guaranty — takes a 41.4% average increase, with the top of the range reaching 88%. The carrier adopted large ISO loss-cost increases and rebuilt increased-limit factors, then aimed them squarely at truck, tractor and trailer risks in the Austin (Territory 023) and San Antonio (Territory 003) zones. The Monroe Guaranty substandard tier fares worst.

Who feels it: contractors and haulers running fleets out of central Texas, especially anyone already in a substandard tier. Move now: this is an August effective date, so you have runway — pull renewals 90 days early and shop the physical-damage layer, where the increases are steepest.

+41.4%
Average
+88%
Max increase
1,147
Policyholders
$63.3M
Premium

Also Approved This Cycle

TXCommercial AutoSev 4

Progressive re-rates 121,802 Texas auto policies

The region's largest book by far. Liability rises 10.7% (UM +14.1%), but the structural moves bite harder: a mandatory annual-mileage variable, a tiered out-of-state-driver surcharge up to ~34%, and a 15-year age cap that effectively prices out older for-hire livery vehicles.

121,802 policyholders · $1.33B premium · effective May 21
CACommercial AutoSev 5

Great West rebuilds its trucking model — seniors and small fleets pay

21.4% average, liability up roughly 28%. A new GLM re-tiers fleets by unit count (10–12 unit operations hit hardest) and removes the rating credit for drivers 60 and older. Veteran drivers used to be a discount; now they're a surcharge.

5,743 policyholders · $138.3M premium · effective Mar 1
CACommercial AutoSev 5

Northland adds a 'commodity' surcharge for refrigerated freight

Northland (Travelers) takes 19.1% overall, liability +23.4%, and introduces Predominant Commodity as a primary rating factor — meat and refrigerated-food haulers see the steepest climb. Credit-based insurance scoring now reaches fleets up to 10 power units.

6,138 policyholders · $86.0M premium · effective Apr 1
CAWorkers CompSev 4

AmTrust triples the minimum premium for small contractors

An ~8% average on the WCIRB 9/1/2025 pure premium rates is the headline, but the real squeeze is the minimum-premium floor: standardized to $1,500–$2,500 for contracting classes across the group. Low-payroll trades pay the floor regardless of actual exposure.

88,139 policyholders · $859.1M premium · effective Mar 1

Why only one workers comp story?

Workers comp is genuinely soft across the Southwest right now. Texas and Colorado bureau loss costs are trending down, and most large WC filings this window were rate decreases or neutral LCM tweaks. AmTrust is the exception — and the reason a contractor's comp bill can rise while the market softens. That minimum-premium floor is the conversation starter: it hits the smallest accounts hardest, and they rarely see it coming.

Northeast
Southeast
Midwest / NW
SouthwestThis week
How we screen. SERFF filings via Xdates, filtered for: approved in January 2026, unfavorable policyholder impact, high-to-critical severity, rate-increase effect, Workers Comp (16.0) and Commercial Auto (20.0), 1,000+ policyholders affected. Figures are filing-level SERFF snapshots; individual impacts vary. Not placement advice. 1 / 3
Insurance Xdate
FILING WATCH
Southwest Edition · January 2026
Page 2 — The Wider Market: All Other Lines
Beyond WC & Auto

The package and umbrella market is re-pricing too — and credit scores are doing the work.

Same screen, every other commercial line: businessowners, package and umbrella filings dominate this cycle across California, Colorado and Nevada. Two themes run through them — carriers are layering third-party credit and wildfire scores onto pricing, and umbrella books are catching up to years of social-inflation losses.

Industries in this issue's filings

Small Business / Main Street
BOP & package
Hospitality & Restaurants
appetite shifts
Agribusiness & Farm
wildfire-driven
High-Net-Worth Personal
umbrella layers

Lead Filing

CACMP / PackageSeverity 5/5

Berkshire Hathaway's small-business program jumps 43.7% — and now scores your credit

Approved January 8, effective July 1. Berkshire Hathaway Direct's '3 Pager' small-business program — 5,393 California policyholders, $29.5M in premium — takes a 43.7% overall increase, with the liability portion up 55.2%. On top of the rate, the filing bolts on two third-party models: LexisNexis C212 business-credit scoring for risk segmentation, and ZestyAI wildfire scoring that triggers mandatory declines for high-hazard properties. Hotels graded 'Standard' face a 75% surcharge; restaurants where alcohol tops 50% of revenue get a 2.5x multiplier.

Who feels it: contractors, hotels, restaurants and law firms in this program — especially any with thin business credit or a wildfire-exposed address. Move now: 'thin file' and 'no-hit' credit profiles get penalized, so help clients verify their business credit data before the July renewal.

+43.7%
Overall
+55.2%
Liability
5,393
Policyholders
$29.5M
Premium

Three Filings Worth a Closer Look

NVUmbrellaSev 5

Allstate's NV umbrella resets to a 116.7% indicated need

Allstate Indemnity's Nevada personal umbrella book moves its rate adjustment factor from 2.238 to 3.959 to chase a 116.7% indicated need — and narrows the policy at the same time, adding mandatory communicable-disease, sexual-abuse and personal-injury/environmental exclusions and removing the concealment-or-fraud provision.

4,419 policyholders · $3.5M premium · effective Mar 23
COUmbrellaSev 4

Allstate's Colorado umbrella book runs a 154.75% loss ratio

The same carrier's larger Colorado umbrella book — 31,999 policyholders — takes a double-digit increase citing a 154.75% 2024 loss ratio and a 14% annual pure-premium trend. Pure rate, no coverage change, but the reach makes it the broadest umbrella move in the region this cycle.

31,999 policyholders · $30.1M premium · effective Mar 5
CABusinessownersSev 4

Stillwater purges churches and restaurants from its BOP appetite

A 14.5% rate move comes with a quiet appetite contraction: owner-occupied houses of worship and a long list of restaurant classes (pizza, deli, fast-casual, seafood) move to 'unacceptable,' and buildings with Challenger, Sylvania, Magnetrip or Pushmatic panels are red-flagged. Mandatory fungi/bacteria and data-breach exclusions attach to all policies.

5,615 policyholders · $15.5M premium · effective Jun 1

The Rest of the Qualifying List

StateCarrierLine / Sub-typeSeverityPolicyholdersEffective
CONationwide AgribusinessCMP — Farm & Ranch4 / 51,089Oct 1, 2025

Also on the radar

Two structural moves just miss the rate-increase bar but matter for placement: Markel withdrew its entire California Farm Package (Jan 28), non-renewing all in-force policies from May and barred from refiling for three years — and Chubb removed the premium-size discount for $50k+ agribusiness accounts while making High/Very-High wildfire zones ineligible. Both are on Page 3. And several Texas businessowners filings cleared at severity 3 with rate moves that will compound at renewal.

How we screen, page 2. Same filters as page 1 — approved January 2026, unfavorable impact, severity 4–5, rate-increase effect, 1,000+ policyholders — applied to every commercial line except Workers Comp (16.0) and Commercial Auto (20.0). Personal lines and niche/noise lines are excluded. Figures are filing-level SERFF snapshots; individual impacts vary. Not placement advice. 2 / 3
Insurance Xdate
FILING WATCH
Southwest Edition · January 2026
Page 3 — Filing Effects: Guidelines, Coverage & Scoring
Beyond the Rate Number

Third-party scoring models arrived in force this month — credit, wildfire and commodity data now price the Southwest.

Same region, the changes that hide behind the rate number: approved January actions whose real story is a new scoring algorithm, an underwriting-guideline change, or a market exit. The pattern this month is unmistakable — carriers are wiring external data (LexisNexis credit, ZestyAI and CoreLogic wildfire, TransUnion/commodity factors) directly into who gets priced up and who gets declined.

Industries in this page's filings

Agribusiness & Farm
wildfire scoring
Small Business / Main Street
credit scoring
Trucking & Transportation
commodity & fleet tiers
Artisan Contractors
market exits

Lead Filing · Scoring Model — Market-Wide Signal

CACMP / PackageSeverity 5/5

Chubb makes wildfire zones uninsurable by algorithm — and excludes cyber from GL

Approved January 30. Pacific Employers (Chubb) adopts the CoreLogic Brushfire model on a 30-meter grid to make any agribusiness location in a High or Very-High wildfire hazard zone ineligible for renewal — no underwriter override. In the same filing, cyber-related claims are excluded from General Liability, the premium-size discount for $50k+ accounts is eliminated (driving ~87% of the increase for large accounts), and deductibles below $5,000 disappear for certain liability classes.

Who feels it: large agribusiness, seed merchants and custom chemical/fertilizer applicators in brush country. Move now: a wildfire score is now a renewal gate, not a surcharge — get exposed clients quoted elsewhere before the model declines them.

CoreLogic 30m
Wildfire model
Cyber
Excluded from GL
Size discount
Removed ($50k+)
$5,000
Min deductible

New Scoring Models — The Trend Is Real

CACMP / PackageSev 5

Berkshire wires LexisNexis credit + ZestyAI wildfire into small business

The '3 Pager' program (also on Page 2 for its 43.7% rate) introduces LexisNexis C212 business-credit scoring for segmentation and ZestyAI wildfire scoring for mandatory declines. 'Thin file' and 'no-hit' owners get penalized; properties scoring Zesty L1 ≥ 5 are non-renewed.

5,393 policyholders · $29.5M premium · approved Jan 8
CACommercial AutoSev 5

Great West re-tiers fleets and drops the senior-driver credit

A new GLM standardizes fleet tiers by unit count — 10-to-12-unit operations lose previous credits — and eliminates the 'Zage1' credit for drivers 60 and older. Experienced drivers flip from a discount to a surcharge before any base-rate change is applied.

5,743 policyholders · $138.3M premium · approved Jan 16
CACommercial AutoSev 5

Northland prices the cargo, not just the truck

Northland (Travelers) adds Predominant Commodity as a primary rating factor — meat and refrigerated-food haulers see an extra climb on top of the 19.1% base move — and expands credit-based insurance scoring from 4-unit to 10-unit fleets. Mid-size fleets get scored for the first time.

6,138 policyholders · $86.0M premium · approved Jan 28

Market Exits & Underwriting Guideline Changes

CAFarm & RanchSev 5

Markel pulls its California Farm Package entirely

Markel is withdrawing its Farm Package program statewide and non-renewing all 39 in-force policies starting May 2026 — and is prohibited from filing a replacement for at least three years. The carrier is directing growers to unaffiliated partners (Bridge Specialties, CRC). Small program, but a clean signal that the California farm market is thinning.

39 policies · $218K premium · approved Jan 28 · non-renewals from May
CACommercial Auto — ArtisanSev 5

GuideOne exits the artisan-contractor auto market

GuideOne is withdrawing its NIF Artisan Contractors program in California effective June 1, 2026 — a hard end date regardless of policy term. Under a CDI transparency objection, the carrier also removed 'Refer to Company' driver-exclusion language, forcing explicit underwriting definitions for contractors with poor driving records.

— policyholder count not reported · approved Jan 23 · program ends Jun 1

Also on the radar

The scoring wave isn't isolated: FCCI's 41% Texas auto hike (Page 1) and Progressive's mandatory annual-mileage variable across 121,802 policies (Page 1) both lean on richer data and ISO loss-cost adoption. Watch for the same external-data playbook — credit, wildfire and telematics — to spread to adopting carriers across the region. When one carrier proves a model clears the regulators, the rest follow.

How we screen, page 3. SERFF filings via Xdates, approved January 2026, Southwest states, all commercial lines, severity 3–5, filing effects SCORING_MODEL / UNDERWRITING_REVISION / COVERAGE_MODIFICATION / MARKET_EXIT / TIERING_REVISION. Because these effects mingle with rate changes, each featured filing was pulled and verified for substance — rate-driven filings live on pages 1–2. Policyholder threshold (1,000+) relaxed where the structural change is itself the story. 3 / 3