Filing Watch: National Recap — January 2026
Insurance Xdate
FILING WATCH
National Recap · January 2026
National Recap
Monthly National Recap

Commercial auto sets the tone for 2026 — and third-party scoring models arrive in force.

Across all four regions, commercial auto was the loudest line in January, led by heavy-truck, livery and emergency-fleet classes. The deeper story: credit, telematics and catastrophe scoring models began pricing commercial risks carrier by carrier.

The month in numbers

685K
Policyholders in featured filings
48
Rate-increase filings
429
Structural filings reviewed
30
New scoring / tiering moves

Northeast Auto-led

CAR’s Massachusetts residual book set limos +15% and long-haul +24.4% across 47,200 policyholders; State Farm and Hereford livery in New York followed. Carriers tempered hikes below indicated need, citing ~199% combined ratios.

CAR (MA) +15–24.4% · 47,200 PH

Southeast Hard auto

Skyward Specialty led Mississippi commercial auto ~+25% (50%+ on some trucks), with Sentry truckers +18.9% in Alabama. Auto-Owners’ Georgia Farm & Ranch carried a 54.5% indicated need across 3,733 policyholders.

Skyward (MS) ~+25% · Auto-Owners (GA) farm

Midwest / NW Structural

Great West’s Kansas trucking book led at +14% (38.5% max), but the real action was on page 3 — Nationwide Agribusiness, National General and others wiring LexisNexis/CAB scoring into farm and fleet auto.

Great West (KS) +14% · truckers

Southwest Highest reach

FCCI’s Texas auto led on rate (+41.4%, 88% max), but Progressive County Mutual moved the quarter’s biggest book — 121,802 Texas policyholders at +10.7%. ZestyAI/CoreLogic wildfire scoring and two agribusiness exits underscored a hardening Southwest.

Progressive County Mutual (TX) +10.7% · 121,802 PH

Rate trends by line

LineTypical approved increaseWhere it concentrated
Commercial Auto+10% to +40% (NYC / heavy-truck tails 70–88%)TX, CA, MA, KS, NY
Workers CompFlat to favorable; increases via LCM / tier shiftsVA, CA (isolated)
General Liability+12% to +24%CO, VA, NC
CMP / BOP+18% to +44%CA, NY, KS
How we read the month. This recap synthesizes the four regional Filing Watch editions for January 2026 — approved SERFF filings, unfavorable policyholder impact, severity 3–5 — into the patterns that crossed regions. Florida is unavailable from this SERFF source. Figures are filing-level snapshots; individual impacts vary. 1 / 3
Insurance Xdate
FILING WATCH
National Recap · January 2026
National Recap — The Big Picture

Cross-Region Patterns

Scoring models go mainstream

LexisNexis credit, Carfax/odometer vehicle history, telematics and ZestyAI/CoreLogic wildfire scores all entered commercial pricing the same month, in at least three regions.

Commercial auto is the through-line

Every region led with commercial auto. Heavy-truck, livery and emergency-fleet classes carried the largest increases nationwide.

Workers comp stayed soft

Bureau loss costs trended down; most approved WC was favorable or neutral, with increases delivered quietly through loss-cost multipliers and tier shifts.

Tempered now, more later

Approved increases ran well below indicated need in several regions (199%+ combined ratios cited) — a tell that second filings are coming.

Coverage & structural watch

Scoring & tiering (30 filings)

Credit, telematics and catastrophe scores entered commercial pricing — LexisNexis, Carfax/odometer history, ZestyAI/CoreLogic wildfire — across NE, MW and SW.

Coverage contraction (71 filings)

Farm and Main-Street BOP forms tightened; agribusiness eligibility narrowed as carriers re-underwrote weather-exposed books.

Market exits (2)

The quarter’s first exits hit agribusiness and wildfire-exposed risks — Markel and Chubb wildfire ineligibility.

Filing Watch · SERFF rate-filing intelligence · Insurance Xdate. Not placement advice. 2 / 3
Insurance Xdate
FILING WATCH
National Recap · January 2026
National Recap — Exits, Movers & Outlook

Biggest filings nationwide

StateCarrierLineChangePolicyholders
TXProgressive County MutualCommercial Auto+10.7%121,802
CAAmTrustWorkers Comp+8%, min-prem to $2,50088,139
MACAR (residual market)Commercial Auto+15% to +24.4%47,200
VAThe HartfordWorkers CompLCM reset43,874
NYState FarmCommercial Auto+19% (BIPD +25%)35,645
COAllstate IndemnityGeneral Liability+24%31,999
NYState FarmCMP / BOP+17.7% (max +26.7%)24,649
OHProgressiveCommercial Auto+6.8% (to +15%)24,500
Filing Watch · SERFF rate-filing intelligence · Insurance Xdate. Not placement advice. 3 / 3